Which bridge now? The aftermath of Norway's election

With most of the votes counted, negotiations have already begun between the future bridge builders of Norwegian politics.

For the latest on the results, see: http://www.regjeringen.no/krd/html/valg2009/bs5.html

The parliamentary landscape has certainly moved:
• It looks like the Red-Green coalition has retained its majority, if only just (assuming that the participants are willing to continue it), with Labour increasing their number of representatives to 64, their best result since 1997.
• The Progress Party has maintained and strengthened its position as the second party of parliament.
• The Conservatives have regained nearly half the seats they lost in 2005.
• The Centre Party has retained its support, the Christian Democrats and Socialist Left suffered losses, and the Liberals have once again almost been wiped out with only 2 of their 10 seats left.

Intriguingly, all three of the larger parties in Norway have made gains in Monday’s election at the expense of their smaller partners, perhaps partly a result of the particularly competitive nature of the election and the considerable uncertainty over the result.

The (potential) narrow Red-Green majority of 3 (86 to 83 members) can work both ways. On the one hand, a small majority can empower individual members of the government or small groups who may be dissatisfied with particular policies; on the other hand, a small majority can act as a disciplining force, with a loss of any major vote potentially threatening the government’s survival.

In addition, since both the Progress Party and Conservatives have made gains, mainly at the expense of the other centre to centre-right groups, it means that the prospect of a Progress minority government is still viable if the Red-Green coalition falters. This potentially provides a further incentive for Red-Green representatives to ensure that the coalition works out of fear of being brought down in a confidence vote and an alternative right-wing government installed.

Short of a major crisis of confidence in the government, this is unlikely to happen. Although the centre to centre-right government in 2000 was brought down over a vote on environmental policy, this government was itself in a minority to begin with. The smaller centre to right parties also remain sceptical over supporting any Progress government.

The Red-Green coalition has survived the last 4 years with only 1 more seat than they have now. Therefore, as long as the different parties continue to cooperate and their individual representatives are satisfied, it is very possible for them to govern for another full term. Indeed, it is still potentially a better parliamentary situation for Labour than any of its minority governments of the 1970s and 80s.